Currencies tend to trend more and fluctuate less violently unlike stocks which behave pretty much the different way. The reason for this is not hard to understand. Currencies trend depending on the countries' foreign and economic policies which are macro economic in nature and the currency pairs take fairly long enough time to react to any change in policies. Where as stock movements are more or less determined by microeconomic factors and market sentiments.
Euro/US Dollar: On Par at the Beginning
When Euro was brought into force its exchange rate was set officially at 1 USD a Euro. At that time there existed hardly any difference between the economies of US and the European Union. US had a GDP of $11.0 billion and European Union was pretty up close there at $10.5 billion. While US economy was growing at a good rate of above 3% per annum Europe was a bit sluggish and recorded slightly over 1.5%.
Gradual Shift In Favor Of Euro
But this was not coming in the way of Euro's gradual march ahead of US Dollar. Look at other key economic factors for yourself. US had a deficit budget and the balance of trade was negatively skewed against US while the European Union had some of the seriously good parameters in exact contrast to that of the US's. The trade balance sheets looked healthy and strong standing on the near equal GDP.
During this period India, China, Russia and Brazil were making big strides in economic growth and Europe was gaining position in their trade partnerships shifting the forex currency in Euro's favor. At a time when their reserves were growing by leaps and bounds, US Dollar was sliding continuously which contributed to the conversion of their reserves into Euro, but partially.
How Does The Market React To This?
Euro/USD is by far the biggest forex pair which accounts for $1 trillion every trading day. With so many changes in the world economic scenario and the notional trades in between the two currencies still commanding 1/3rd of the currency market, the US dollar trended constantly over the years.
The firm trend may not be apparent in short term price charts but a relatively long period chart such as 2-3 years would clarify Euro's constant gain against USD. Till recently cross currency payments were, say for Japanese payments to Germany, first by converting Yen into USD and then USD into Euro. Now such a necessity doesn't arise for payments.
All these things mean that the trends are going to continue for long unless there is a strong reason.
Monday, July 7, 2008
How to Identify Trending in Forex Trading
Online Forex Trading Tutorial
There is an old adage connected to online forex and stock trading. It goes some what like this If you are inexperienced and have money and meet an experienced trader, but without money, you are likely to end up with experience and the experienced trader your money. There can be some semblance of truth in this but what this infers is trading without experience and strong fundamental knowledge of the market is an invitation to loss making.
Online Forex Trading Tutorial
There are several reputed online forex trading houses that cater to retail investors and traders. The same trading houses offer to train their prospective and existing clients on the nitty gritties of online forex trading most of the times free of cost.
What You Need To Learn About Online Forex Trading?
If you are a novice you need to start from the beginning. The macro economic factors that affect price volatility and the demand and supply of currencies that trigger the short term fluctuations which are your trading opportunities and most importantly the points of entry and exits form the basis of your learning.
Most of the online forex trading tutorials available require you to open a cost free demo/practice account so that you get exposure to either real time or simulated environment for better understanding.
Online Forex Trading Tutorial Curricula
You will see that, generally all the tutorials have more or less the same curricula. Basically speculations are made through a number of charts and indicators.
Chart Types:
1. Line chart
2. Bar chart
3. Candle stick chart
All these charts are price plots for selected periods. Then there are several indicators that help make decision. The important and most followed ones are
1. Average true range (ATR)
2. BOLLINGER BAND
3. Commodity Channel Index
4. Linear Regression
5. MACD
6. Momentum
7. Moving average
8. Parabolic time price
9. (ROC)Rate of Change
10. Relative Strength Index
11. Slow Stochastic
12. Standard Deviation
13. Stochastic
All charts and indicators are taught with sufficient demonstrations for self study. The tutorials deal with the patterns and formations made by charts/indicators and what they mean. While charts help you for short term speculative trading (technical analysis) they don't concentrate on the underlying reasons for price movements. This is the ground for fundamental analysis. The study of macroeconomic factors such as changes in government policies, wars etc that influence supply and demand, and as a consequence prices, constitute the fundamental analysis. These things are illustrated in contrast with demonstrative price movements.
Online forex trading tutorial helps gain a lot for everyone who takes it.
18 Questions To Help You Define Your Day Trading Edge
Many people in corporations have spent countless days and countless dollars working to define their Unique Selling Propositions (USP's) so that the public gets a clear, concise, benefit-driven message. The USP is also the "edge" which make these businesses stand out among their peers.
In day trading, you need to define YOUR edge to help you become clear on what it is that makes you money on a CONSISTENT basis, both now and well into the future. If you think about it long enough, chances are that you will have at least one good edge which you can use to define your trading edge; and most likely it will be a personality trait that separates you from the rest.
You may not know your edge at this time, however, so spend a few hours with and ponder these areas when determining what sets you apart from all of the other traders in the marketplace:
Start with your personality traits and what makes you a better trader than someone else:
- Are you faster on the keyboard than most other people?
- Do you have a background in one of the riskier professions (pilot, firefighter, etc.) so that you are comfortable with risk?
- Do you have more tenacity than other people you know?
- Are you able to blend humility along with decisiveness better than most people you know?
- Can you accept losses emotionally and still perform with precision?
- Are you extremely analytical?
- Are you faster at mathematical calculations?
- Do you think in probabilities?
- Are you more disciplined?
- Do you have a deep understanding of trading psychology?
For the more "functional" ways to determine your edge, ask yourself:
- Do you have new ways to use a specific technical indicator?
- Do you have better technology (faster, more robust, etc.)?
- Do you have specific trading education which most people do not have?
- Do you have any background with previous traders such as having been on the trading floor or trading pits?
- Do you have programming language experience to help you write programs to trade the markets?
- Do you trade around and/or associate with consistently profitable traders?
- Do you have better money management techniques?
- Do you have better risk management systems in place?
The are just some topics to get you started thinking about your edge. Once you have defined your it, develop day trading strategies around your edge(s) so that you play to your strengths. While the market offers no guarantees of success, a trading style based on your strengths will increase your confidence when trading in the markets.
If you ever decide to raise money in the form of an investment advisory firm or hedge fund, you will want to have your edge(s) well-defined. Doing so will help you with marketing efforts and attracting the necessary capital to conduct your business.
Day Trading Technical Indicators
Day trading technical indicators are the representation of mathematical formulae a day trader can use to decide when to do the trading. Forex day trading involves buying and selling of various currencies with the goal of making a profit from the difference between the buying price and the selling price within a day.
The day traders employ different strategies like short term scalping where positions are only held for a few seconds or minutes or longer term swing and position trading, when they hold the position for the whole trading day. For their trades they follow one or more day trading technical indicators or develop a strategy based on a combination of many such indicators.
A day trading technical indicator is a series of data points that can be derived by applying a formula to the price data. Price data includes any combination of the open, high, low, or close over a period of time.
Some technical indicators may use only the closing prices while others incorporate volume and open interest into their formulas. The price data is entered into the formula and a data point is produced, which in turn creates the indicator.
The list of day trading technical indicators is practically endless. There are Absolute Breadth Index, Bollinger Bands, Bull/Bear Ratio, Candlestick Charts, indicators based on Dow Theory or Elliot Wave Theory, Envelopes, Fibonacci Levels, MACD, Moving Averages, TRIX, Weighted Close, and many more. All these can be used as a day trading technical indicators with slight or no modifications.
For example, the absolute breadth index or ABI is a market momentum indicator which shows the activity, volatility, and change taking place in the market without paying attention to the direction of the prices. High readings implicate active markets. As a day trading technical indicator, it can predict future direction if combined with other indicators.
Bollinger Bands on the other hand are a kind of moving average envelope. It exist at standard deviation levels above and below the moving average and generally stay within the upper and lower bands. As a day trading technical indicators, it predicts the future market movements. Fibonacci numbers with 4 theories - arcs, fans, retracements, and time zones, which highlight reversals in trends.
Day trading technical indicators has three functions–to alert, to confirm and to predict. So a trader can never miss a trading opportunity or run into loss if he or she can use the indicators judiciously.
The best approach will be to develop a strategy based on more than one indicator. Learning how to use these indicators is more of an art than a science. Through careful study and analysis, a day trading technical indicator can be developed over time, but they can never be full proof.
Avoiding Common Pitfalls in A Forex Trading Strategy
The Forex Trading Strategy to Avoid Common Pitfalls
Currencies are traded similar to stocks and bonds in the complex international marketplace of the foreign exchange currency market. The Forex market, or Forex, is highly difficult as every currencies' economic situations are complex. A flexible trading platform and system is a requirement when studying Forex.
Some Forex trading systems have strategies based on market indicators, making them perfect for the changing market. In Forex trading strategy, being aware of what to search for in the diverse world economies can be a complicated undertaking. Since trends are ever changing, they would be outdated by the time you've done your research. Using market indicators - a group of proven guidelines and signals - lets somebody trading in Forex to look for trends and signals in all currencies.
Some basic principles for Forex trading strategy that can assist anybody trying to study Forex trading are:
- Make it a point to use the correct stop-loss orders. You can define cut-offs to minimize risks and losses. Forex trading strategy experts also apply stop-losses to maintain profits.
- You can allow your profits to run and cut your losses short. Let a pair that is earning high run. If your pair brings you a loss and is heading in that trend still, cut your losses. Do not continue and think that the pair will improve and turn profitable.
- There are always up market trends and down market trends present. Market trends are often changing across different pairs. At times it requires a bit of studying the market differentlyin a different way.
- Know when to step aside. Sometimes it's profitable not to have a pair or to trade.
- Trade with the trends rather than attempting to choose tops and bottoms. You can trade based on tested market indicators.
These strategies are just a few of numerous. You have the adaptability to trade in the complex Forex market with a dependable Forex trading system. With plenty of economies involved in the Forex market, it is good practice and more convenient to use a Forex trading system relying on indicators than trying to study and be on top of all of the economies involved.